February Fallacy

[tealin]

I am tired of and annoyed with the media, every Groundhog Day, reporting the 'verdict' of Punxutawney Phil and his less famous cronies in other Eastern cities as if it had any bearing on the weather of the rest of the continent. If you're going to follow weather superstitions, at least follow them accurately. Presumably generations of farmers (or hunter-gatherers - who knows?) used their observational expertise to construct them. Using February 2nd (a.k.a. Candlemas) as a way to predict the weather for the next few months has a long tradition, at least in Europe. Some examples:

If Candlemas Day be fair and bright, winter will have another fight;
If Candlemas Day brings cloud and rain, winter will not come again.

If Candlemas Day be dry and fair, the half o' the winter's to come and mair;
If Candlemas Day be wet and foul, the half o' the winter's gone at Yule.

When the cat lies in the sun in February, she will creep behind the stove in March.

Of all the months of the year, curse a fair February.

If it thunders in February, it will frost in April.

The divination of future weather by means of an animal's reaction to the sun seems to have come from Germany,* where they used badgers. 'The badger peeps out of his hole on Candlemas day, and, if he finds snow, walks abroad; but if he sees the sun shining he crawls back in his hole.'

Animal or no animal, though, none of these proverbs include anything about the weather conditions in a local area determining the forecast for the entire continent. They're all 'look out your window on February 2nd and see' type things. Why should cloud cover in Pennsylvania determine the earliness of Spring in Idaho? As we've seen this winter, different regions can have vastly different meteorological abnormalities: an indicator in California that would have predicted severe cold would have been correct in its area but not for the East Coast. So why should our vast continent pay so much attention to one rodent in one city way off on one side of it? Look out your window! Or ... now that it's past sunset ... try to remember what the weather was like today. Was it sunny? Six more weeks of winter. Was it cloudy? Spring is coming soon. Shucks to Punxutawney Phil (unless you live in Punxatawney).

*This probably explains why the 'official' groundhog is in Pennsylvania, which had a large population of German immigrants.

Comments

[plottwist13.livejournal.com]

Don't be hating on PA. We're where it's at, weather prediction wise. XD Not really, I think it's all just superstition. I mean seriously, Punxatawney Phil isn't the same groundhog every year and Octorora Orphie is . . . a stuffed groundhog that they put on a boat and tow down a river (or maybe that's another one). Not exactly the most accurate weather prediction. :D I like that Candlemas poem though - pretty awesome.